It is inevitable that global demand for oil will consistently outstrip supply. Peak oil is when the extraction rate can no longer be increased, so is at a maximum. It is significant because oil underpins the global economy, providing 35% of primary energy used. Therefore it is important to predict when peak oil will be reached. Over 100 countries have already passed peak production and the UK Energy Research Centre believes terminal decline could start before 2020. Global per-capita usage peaked in 1978. Many believe that peak oil was reached in 2008, but there are still large oilfields in Iraq not yet in production.
A world without oil provides alarming thoughts: 97% of the UK transport energy consumption stems from petroleum and peak oil will diminish globalisation. However, we can still postpone it. Demand in developed nations has already peaked and with improvements in technology and exploration, discovery of more oil will continue. Today, global reserves contain around 1.2 trillion barrels, almost double that thought in 1980. In Iran, the proven oil reserves accounted for 93 billion barrels in 1998. Today, the figure is 138 billion. The danger is not that oil will run out, but that it will become unaffordable.
As our reliance on oil must decrease, adaptations will have to be made. 25% of oil usage in the UK is for commuting, so more encouragement to work from home will take place. Transport forms 95% of oil use so we must prioritise developing alternative fuels. China is forecast to account for half of global oil usage, so a focus on developing non-oil-reliant cars there is welcomed.
As the achievement of peak oil is inevitable, we must focus on making the transition into a post-peak-world smoother, finding alternative fuels and leaving oil before oil leaves us.
Graph demonstrating peak oil, showing oil production compared with demand and the effects this will have. Image source: http://www.postpeakliving.com